Export to finish in beauty on 2024: how to conquer the world

We inaugurate this sharing with a journey around the world to discover which are the best borders of the export: the goals that have been promising in recent months and you should pay more attention to in the coming days.

But before we move to global expansion, we offer you a brief overview of the current global situation so that you can find out what's impacting and what will affect world trade in the coming months. the most impactful aspects in this 2024: from the US elections to the two main conflicts that dominate the global political scene and which caused a shift in the world economic axis.

So, as we always say: Ready!

In this article you will find out

How is the world going in 2024? And above all, what events are having a real impact on business relations?

We open our tour with one of the most followed events in this 2024: the elections of the next President of the United StatesWho will take one of the most important offices from next year and what will the consequences be? In the next paragraphs we will try to give you an answer based on the opinion of an export expert in the United States.

To the facts that are distorting international dynamics are added two great challenges that world economies have faced for a long timeWe are talking about the Ukrainian Russian conflict, which began more than two years ago and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, more than a long time ago, but which was particularly inspritized over the last year.

In the next paragraphs, we will see the effects of these two events on international trade.

It seems that even in the Far East, there are really worthy facts: at the end of the year, after five years, North Korea will reopen to tourismThe country closed its borders for Covid-19 and is now ready to re-accommodate tourists (though with some problems).

On 29 July, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed the agreement with the Italian Government. 3-year action plan 2024-2027The aim of this project is to start new collaborations.

After this brief recap of what is happening, from west to east, we are ready to go to the most promising borders for the Italian export and see what are the direct and indirect consequences of events of greater scope.

Before you point out the most interesting states to put your dots on the globe, we want to bring you back some WTO forecasts (World Trade Organization) about the 2024-2025 period that you could find really interesting. “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” The WTO envisages a gradual recovery of the volume of world trade in goods in 2024 and 2025. This follows a contraction in 2023, determined by the effects of the high energy and inflation costs in world economies, but above all European.

The trade in goods is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, after a decrease of 1.2% in 2023. It could still arise a possible downfall due to geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty of economic policies.

The Commission is also proposing a new programme for the development of the new technologies. digitally supplied services export, which reached 4.25 trillion dollars in 2023, with an increase of 9% compared to the previous year.

According to the World Trade Organization, all regions in the world should be able to contribute positively to the growth of exports and imports in 2024But more particularly, Asia should increase approximately 1.3% exports and 1.9% imports.

How it was “If by chance the world changed, I move a little further.”Not really, but the sense of the content of this article lies in this phrase.

The current arrangement determines the best countries to export and to which to aim for new business relations. SACEThe insurance and financial group specializing in support of enterprises and national economic fabric, has identified 14 countries that have distinguished itself for growth, ambition, transformation and potential for the exports of Italian companies.

The list is included USA, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, India, China, Vietnam and Singapore.

A special mention and focus is certainly worthwhile. MexicoAs stated by Alessandra Ricci, CEO of Sace, Mexico is among the highest potential economies and the first recipient of theexport of Italian goods to Latin America.

In fact, the Mexican economy is the most open among the main areas of the area (the trade exchange on GDP amounts to 88%) and presents strong links with the US market and is very diversified at manufacturing level.

Growth is expected for Italian trade in Mexico that will address specifically the demand for machinery, provided for in 6.2% and 6.6% respectively increase This year and next, and will be able to find ample outlets given the Mexican manufacturing system. The demand for Italian machinery also concerns not only Mexico, but also Brazil.

Among the main export sectors we will then have that of transport (+5.1% in 2024 and +4.7% in 2025) thanks to the good Mexican positioning in electric vehicle chainsAlthough still in a limited way, the aerospace sector is booming and could therefore be a source of demand for Italian companies in the industry.

Are you wondering what factor might have guaranteed the podium position in Mexico? the already mentioned Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the consequent crisis in the Suez Canal which plays a crucial role in trade with Asia.interruption of the passage of the ships for the Suez Canal has caused an increase in the costs of marine transport, in particular in the traffics between Asia and the Mediterranean, forcing to a certain extent economic investments in more "tranquille" areas.

At the same time, however, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has triggered an international energy reorganization that has led unexpected advantages to the Gulf countriesIn fact, their exports of petroleum products have increased and the aim of a production diversification has had and continues to have positive effects for Italian exports.

The demand for goods made in Italy is growing, in particular in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where our products have recorded remarkable increment rates in 2023.

Moving even further to the East, we find one of the major Italian partners: China. 

As already anticipated, at the end of July Italy and China signed the three-year plan of action With the signing of the agreement, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared his intention to commit to improving and optimising cooperation in various sectors, including that of the electric vehicles and all that concerns artificial intelligence; but also industrial production, and technological innovation more generally.

We are now flying west and talking about another fundamental pawn in the fate of world trade. United States of America of course, that remain one of the main trading partners for Italy and for most of the world economies.

As anticipated, a crucial event concerning the US will determine the fortunes of trade with countries with which it has relations: the elections of the next or next president.

On 21 July, the current President of the United States, Joe Biden retired his candidacy for what would be his possible second term to the White House.

The new opponent of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump took his place.

1 August 2024 Lucio Miranda, President of Export USAAt Timeline, Sky Tg24 broadcast, he spoke about the probable fate of US trades according to the outcome of the election.

Miranda introduced her intervention by mentioning the two different economic and monetary policies If we assume that, in the event of a victory, Harris would continue with the same economic policies as his predecessor Biden, waiting for us would presumably continue the golden years that have come to this day.

In case Trump wins, for those who want to expand their business in the USA the situation could be more complicated: the Republican candidate talks about a increase in customs duties on products, as in the past, a little wise choice has already been found.

The conditions would be quite challenging in short for Italian companies that intend to export to the United States: the advice of Miranda in this sense is to structure itself better "to how to set up the service. The level of service in America is more important than the product or is important So Italian companies must have a much more solid structure, that is, have a much more solid structure to be able to identify themselves in the realities of this market.”

Now that we have visited the most promising destinations, we see through a research commissioned by Mallei, conducted by BSI (Build Sustainable Innovation – Bocconi) which were the main trading partners for Italy in 2023.

The vast majority of Italian exports find destination in European countriesThe following are important markets such as the North American market with about 11.8% and the South-East Asian countries with about 8%. These same regions also make up the main sources of import for Italy. the lowest percentages of exports and Italian importsand are recorded in central and southern Africa and central Asia.

What Italian business partners arrived on the podium in 2023? Germany with 12% Italian exports, United States with 11% and France with 10%Germany has also confirmed its main partner with regard to imports with a share of 15.2% followed by China and France, both in second place with 8%.